Fewer Kids = Economic Decline

Just a few years ago, overpopulation was the greatest "threat" to humanity. What changed?

Demographics.

That's the stark conclusion from James Stock and Mark Watson in this fascinating, and occasionally depressing, new paper. In fact, they say, the future is now. For the last few years, we've weathered the beginning of what demographers have called the grey tsunami. "Most of the slow recovery [in today's job market] is attributable to a long-term slowdown in trend employment growth," Stock and Watson write.

The authors blame two demographic demons for our uncertain future: (1) the plateau in the female labor force participation rate, and (2) the aging of the U.S. workforce. Their underlying logic is that without continued growth in female workers or a significant boost in population, employment and GDP growth will slow, leaving us vulnerable to recessions with "steeper declines and slower recoveries." In such a future, jobless recoveries will be the only recoveries we know.

You Can Stop Worrying about Overpopulation

But if you really need something to worry about, just put underpopulation in that slot.

Tiger vs. Dragon

The Freakonomics blog has an interesting comparison of China and India in terms of both past GDP growth, and current population trends.



But one thing to keep in mind about demographic projections: they seem more inevitable than they are! Often, demographic trends that seem unstoppably moving in one direction take an unexpected turn.

Still, savvy marketers can't afford to ignore demographics, especially the near-term trends.

Heading to 10 Billion

I won't be around to see it, but the U.N. says we're headed to a world population of 10 billion by 2100. I suspect they are wrong, and hope that this estimate is not agenda-driven.

There are many indications that growth is slowing in almost all countries of the world, and that as living standards go up, fertility goes down.

It's easier to deliver health than wealth, but once a country has health, wealth seems to follow, and with it, lower fertility. So high rates of growth are just an inevitable phase--the "poor and healthy" phase--between "poor and sick" and "rich and healthy."

Silliest Statement award goes to John Bongaarts: "Can we feed 10 billion people? Probably. But we obviously would be better off with a smaller population."

Really? Obviously?

Last I checked, "we" are much better off than we were 100 years ago, or even 25 years ago, in terms of poverty, health, literacy, and access to education.

How can anyone be so sure that more people are necessarily--obviously--a bad thing for "us?"

All the Missing Girls, Continued

So what will the social ramifications of 160 million missing women be 10 years from now? 20 years from now? Here's a clue:

But Birbal was unable to find a bride in Haryana, which has the most unbalanced sex ratio in the country, with 877 women for every 1,000 men. Among under sevens, that ratio drops to just 830 girls for every 1,000 boys.

Think about what happens when someone "imports" a bride from a place where sex ratios are more balanced: he simply "exports" the imbalance somewhere else. This is a zero sum trade. The pain is simply going to be passed down the income scale, to be fully absorbed by the poorest, who will find themselves incapable of forming families. Ever.

All the Missing Girls

There are now an estimated 160,000,000 fewer women than there "should" be in the world. That figure is calculated from natural sex ratios (male births to female births) and life expectancy, and shows that something very unnatural is occurring.

In demographic terms, I can't imagine there's ever been a bigger impact with less awareness than what's happened to cause this massive imbalance:

The scale of that number evokes the genocidal horrors of the 20th century. But notwithstanding the depredations of the Chinese politburo, most of the abortions were (and continue to be) uncoerced. The American establishment helped create the problem, but now it’s metastasizing on its own: the population-control movement is a shadow of its former self, yet sex selection has spread inexorably with access to abortion, and sex ratios are out of balance from Central Asia to the Balkans to Asian-American communities in the United States.

Forget the politics. Everyone--Chinese, American, liberal, conservative--should recognize that this is tragic.