Turning to Imports

The BBC is reporting this as being caused by a surge in energy prices, but my sense is that it's simply part of a greater general trend: after decades of running trade surpluses, China will go on an importing spree that will last many years.

Side note: every time I see a prediction that China's demand for raw materials is about to collapse, I wait for something like this right around the corner:

According to the trade figures released over the weekend, crude oil shipments hit a record-high of 5.95m barrels per day. China's imports of copper and iron ore also rose during the month.

One last point: if China really does become a voracious importer, expect the complaints to be almost as loud as the complaints against China's exporting. It's irrational, but you can expect to hear things like "China is driving up prices for everything." Just the exact mirror complaint of "China is selling everything too cheaply for us to compete," but the complainers will never see their own irony.